The Oscars Exchange: Part Two
We conclude our Oscar preview, looking at the battle ground and wide-open races of the night's biggest awards as well as Best International Feature with guest contributor Dana "The Movie Muse" Gillis.
We covered below-the-line categories last week, and special guests Dana Gillis and Brad Ritter of the Independent Picture House discussed Best Picture rankings on Wednesday, so I’d like to focus on the above-the-line performance awards. We haven’t had a chance to watch all the shorts yet, but all other Oscar races are up for discussion. This year, we have them broken down into three categories: Locks, Battles, and Wide Open fields. Check the graphic below to see where things currently stand in our conversation.
MatM: Dana, let’s start with the Locks category. Do you see any scenario where any of the five nominees listed won’t walk away with the statue? I can confidently bet my life savings on Jessie Buckley for Best Actress, KPop Demon Hunters for Animated Feature, and “Golden” for Best Original Song. You might be able to convince me of Ryan Coogler for Sinners in directing, but it feels like a PTA coronation night. Göransson also feels inevitable at this point for a Sinners Best Score.
DG: I agree that all categories are locked except for Best Director. While I know your admiration for Paul Thomas Anderson runs deep, and I would never disrespect his name, this is the split I predict could happen. Sinners is making a strong run here at the 11th hour, and Ryan Coogler could ride its coattails to an upset. Best Director / Best Movie splits are rare, with only 27 occurrences in 97 years, but this could be the year for it, and I would not be disappointed to see a Coogler win over Anderson.
MatM: I feel the Academy may feel that Anderson not receiving his laurels for There Will Be Blood is always hovering, so I’d be surprised if he wasn’t awarded just on that measure alone. Coogler was phenomenal but also quite young in his filmmaking career, which could end up giving the nod to the more seasoned PTA.
MatM: Moving on to our second category of Battles has brought many split votes at the dozen or so guild and awards nights. Sean Penn won the BAFTA and Actor’s Award for his menacing yet kinky villain, Steven Lockjaw, in One Battle After Another. He also literally hasn’t shown up to collect awards, opting to skip both, presumably to smoke fifty more cigarettes. This doesn’t sit well, and many voters feel a “his time” award for Stellan Skarsgård, particularly with Penn having already secured two Oscars. I’m still going with Penn, but would be ecstatic for a Skarsgård upset. In Sentimental Value, we saw a really low-key but wonderful performance as a selfish film-directing father trying to make up for lost time with his daughters while coping with his own familial trauma. Also, we haven’t mentioned Delroy Lindo in Sinners… is it time for him? I can’t imagine anyone but Lindo taking on that role.
DG: I’ve been a Sean Penn-the-actor fan since he rolled out of that van as Spicoli in Cameron Crowe’s Fast Times at Ridgemont High. Dead Man Walking and Milk are on my list of all-time favorite films as well. I’ve become a Sean Penn-the-person fan this award season, watching him be absolutely unapologetic about his apathy for the Hollywood machine. The only choice for me in this category is Colonel Lockjaw.
MatM: Any thoughts on what stood out to you in Best International Feature before I break them down? Overall, a really strong slate, and the political overtones of several of the nominees were omnipresent to match the current state of the world in 2026.
DG: I generally defer to you and your love of International Films, but I’m going to call Sentimental Value a no-brainer for Best International Film. It has garnered enough buzz in the Best Picture race over the past month for being a great movie, and I feel like that popularity will carry over into the International Film category. This would be a perfect spot to reward a wonderful film.
MatM: I loved all five for different reasons. Usually, one or two may not resonate with me personally, but it was hard to deny this slate of entries. Here are my rankings for Best International Feature:
The Voice of Hind Rajab from Tunisia was heartbreaking and incredibly frustrating to watch. The discomfort was the point, and hearing real-life recordings of a six-year-old Palestinian girl fighting for her life as the Red Crescent tries to coordinate her rescue will leave you broken. Click here for my review of the film.
Sirāt is Spain’s selection this year, focusing on the desert rave scene in Morocco. A father and his teen son have been traveling for months from party to party trying to find his daughter. As the family duo follows a group of eclectic ravers to the next music scene, we are introduced to the background of an all-out civil war happening within the country. That war works its way to the characters and creates some of the most jaw-dropping scenes of the year, all set to a thumping EDM soundtrack. Highly recommend seeing this at the Independent Picture House to get the visceral feel on a big screen.
The Secret Agent makes back-to-back nominees for Brazil after last year’s winning film, I’m Still Here. Wagner Moura plays an academic on the run from hitmen during Carnivale in Recife, Brazil, in 1977, smack dab in the middle of the military dictatorship of the Fifth Brazilian Republic. Moura’s character, Armando, who uses the alias Marcelo, fled to a safe house for other political refugees, biding his time until he can reunite with his young son, Fernando. The character work and cast were absolutely incredible. From local thugs to fellow refugees to small scene bit players, the movie feels lived in. You are transported through costumes, set design, and music back to 1977. Moura puts in a fantastic performance and has a dark-horse chance to take home Best Actor on Sunday.
Sentimental Value is worth a second viewing and is available to stream on VOD currently (March 23 on Hulu). This family trauma dramedy has incredible acting performances, and its biggest detriment is trying to compare to Joachim Trier’s 2021 modern classic The World Person in the World. The quartet of actors at the center of the story not only brought a distinct flavor to the Norwegian film but were also all nominated at this year’s Oscars. Read more on this film by clicking here.
It Was Just an Accident, while being shot illegally by director Jafar Panahi in Iran, was submitted by France as its official Oscar entry. I’m not sure how this film lost steam after its Palme d’Or win at the Cannes Film Festival, but this deeply dark comedy could not be more in the moment of the current political consciousness. It may be a two-horse race between Sentimental Value (which will win) and The Secret Agent, but no film left a cold shiver down my spine like the last five minutes of this film. See my full review of this amazing film here.
MatM: In our wide-open choices, we have three categories that could be won by no less than three of the five total nominees. While we covered cinematography last week, where I selected Michael Bauman from One Battle After Another, you could easily make a case for Train Dreams or Sinners. Each feature breathtaking shots that could be hung up as works of art in a museum.
DG: I know Sinners is the frontrunner in this category and rightfully so, but I put Train Dreams in my number four spot based solely on this category. The movie is a perfect juxtaposition between the pain of grief and the overwhelming beauty of nature. The main character’s life is ordinary in a not-so-ordinary location, and it challenges us to embrace the magnificence that surrounds us. I can not recommend this movie enough for the brilliance of the camera work.
MatM: For Best Supporting Actress, we have split votes throughout. Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), and most recently Amy Madigan (Weapons) have won major precursor awards. Both actresses in Sentimental Value (Elle Fanning & Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas) have seemingly split their votes. I think I’m going to ride the Actor’s Award tide for Madigan in her sadistic witch horror role as Aunt Gladys from Weapons. She made that movie go to the dark side, and the ending was one of the better scenes of the year.
DG: Please let Amy Madigan win an Oscar, please let Amy Madigan win an Oscar! If you are freaking 75 years old and can pull off that look and those stunts, you deserve to win. It has been 40 years since her last nomination, which is an Oscar record, and I feel like the sentimentalist Oscar voters would love to reward that longevity. You had me at Field of Dreams and your book-banning speech, Amy Madigan. Bring it home for Aunt Gladys in Weapons.
MatM: There is one last award before Best Picture that we must decipher. Best Actor is a WILD grouping overall. I would probably rank Chalamet first, slightly ahead of Michael B Jordan after his Actor’s Award win, with Wagner Moura just behind in third. The academy loves Leo, though, and has no problem voting for the establishment. I think Ethan Hawke is just happy to finally secure his first Best Actor nomination for Blue Moon (a movie I didn’t really enjoy). I think the Academy is souring on Chalamet, and Michael B Jordan is going to ride that Sinners wave to a win for his dual role performance as twins Smoke and Stack!
DG: Hands down, the best performance this year was Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon. He didn’t need the high action or the fancy cinematography to pull off this performance. He sat at a bar and delivered an almost continuous stream of banter that was enchanting. Yeah, yeah, Michael B Jordan was great, and Leo was undeniably great, but Ethan Hawke was art. That said, I think Michael B Jordan is going to follow the Sinners parade all the way to a golden statue. My Gen X heart will be pulling for an Ethan Hawke upset.
MatM: We have reached the mountaintop Dana! Best Picture has turned into a two-picture narrative of the ages… or has it? I know there is incredible momentum from Sinners right now, but it hasn’t once been at the expense of One Battle After Another. Hell, OBAA even picked up the French César Award for best International Film, which was a first for an American film since Birdman in 2016. We’ve seen these things spiral towards surprising wins like Moonlight in 2017 and, most recently, Parasite in 2020. I just don’t see it here. One Battle was much better than the competition in those two cases, and it will be taking home the top prize for Paul Thomas Anderson on Sunday.
DG: That’s it. Another cinematic year is coming to a close, and we’ve just gotten another year older and definitely not wiser. If I’ve learned anything from our years of Oscar predictions, it is that nothing in Oscarland is predictable. I’m going to stick to my initial gut vibes and say OBAA will win Best Picture on Sunday night, but it would not break my heart at all for Sinners to take home the statue. Both are great stories, and both are entertaining. After all, isn’t that what the movies are all about?
MatM: That is exactly what it’s about, Movie Muse. Regardless of the outcome, the newly acquired Warner Bros. Pictures are taking home Best Picture, so chew on that for a minute. Very exciting times coming Sunday evening at the Independent Picture House. Dana has bested me in her ballot, I believe, the last two years, and I will fight valiantly to stop a third. Thank you, Dana, and special guest Brad Ritter, for their thoughts. Tune into ABC/Hulu and watch host Conan O’Brien toast to the stars of Hollywood, kicking off at 7 PM. Thanks for reading Matt at the Movies over at Y’all Weekly.
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